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Wiley Series in Computational and Quantitative Social Science

Computational Social Science is an interdisciplinary field undergoing rapid growth due to the availability of ever increasing computational power leading to new areas of research. Embracing a spectrum from theoretical foundations to realworld applications, theWiley Series in Computational and Quantitative Social Science is a series of titles ranging from high level student texts, explanation and dissemination of technology and good practice, through to interesting and important research that is immediately relevant to social / scientific development or practice. Books within the series will be of interest to senior undergraduate and graduate students, researchers and practitioners within statistics and social science.

Behavioral Computational Social Science

Riccardo Boero

Tipping Points: Modeling Social Problems and Health

John Bissell (Editor), Camila Caiado (Editor), Sarah Curtis (Editor), Michael Goldstein (Editor), Brian Straughan (Editor)

Understanding Large Temporal Networks and Spatial Networks: Exploration, Pattern Searching, Visualization and Network Evolution

Vladimir Batagelj, Patrick Doreian, Anuska Ferligoj, Natasa Kejzar

Analytical Sociology: Actions and Networks

Gianluca Manzo (Editor)

Computational Approaches to Studying the Co-evolution of Networks and Behavior in Social Dilemmas

Rense Corten

The Visualisation of Spatial Social Structure

Danny Dorling

AGENT-BASED MODELING OF TAX EVASION

THEORETICAL ASPECTS AND COMPUTATIONAL SIMULATIONS

 

Edited by

Sascha Hokamp

Universität Hamburg

 

László Gulyás

Eötvös Loránd University

 

Matthew Koehler

The MITRE Corporation

 

Sanith Wijesinghe

The MITRE Corporation

 

 

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Notes on Contributors

Amanda Andrei is a social scientist and senior artificial intelligence engineer at The MITRE Corporation specializing in social analytics, development of innovative processes and spaces, and application of mixed methods to sociotechnical problems. She received her BA in Anthropology from the College of William & Mary, her Certificate in Computational Social Science from George Mason University, and her MA in Communication, Culture, and Technology from Georgetown University.

Kim M. Bloomquist is an operations research analyst with the U.S. Internal Revenue Service's Taxpayer Advocate Service. He has authored and coauthored numerous papers and book chapters on the economics of taxpayer compliance and agent-based modeling. His research has been cited in Congressional testimony, the Washington Post, Tax Notes, and Tax Notes International. He has received several awards for his research on tax compliance including the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development's (OECD) Jan Francke Tax Research Award, the Cedric Sandford medal for the best paper at the seventh International Conference on Tax Administration in Sydney, Australia, and the IRS Research Community Award for Research Technical Expertise. Kim received his PhD (Computational Social Science) from George Mason University, Fairfax, Virginia in 2012.

Kevin Comer is a Modeling and Simulation Engineer at the MITRE Corporation, specializing in agent-based modeling design, development and validation. His primary focus is in simulating the dynamics of the individual health insurance market. He also works on modeling processes in cybersecurity and homeland security. He received his B.S. in Systems Engineering and Economics from the University of Virginia, his M.S. in Operations Research from George Mason University Volgenau School of Engineering, and his Ph.D. in Computational Social Science from George Mason University's Department of Computational Social Science. His email address is ktcomer@mitre.org.

Andrés M. Cuervo Díaz completed his BSc in Physics from Universidad de los Andes, Bogota, Colombia, in 2014 in the field of quantum optics and is a master's student in the study program “Integrated Climate System Sciences” at the Cluster of Excellence (DFG EXC 177 CliSAP), participating in the research group Climate Change and Security (CLISEC). He is mainly interested in agent-based and integrated assessment modeling for the evaluation of policies' performance and possible strategies to enhance environmental protection and climate change action.

László Gulyás holds a PhD in Computer Science from Eötvös Loránd University, Hungary. He is an assistant professor at Eötvös Loránd University, Budapest, and held the position of head of division at AITIA International, Inc. He has been doing research on agent-based modeling and multiagent systems since 1996. He has been involved in teaching both graduate and undergraduate level courses in agent-based modeling and simulation at Harvard University, at the Central European University and at the Eötvös Loránd University, Hungary. He has authored several book chapters and journal articles. In particular, László has published on agent-based modeling of tax evasion since 2009.

Nigar Hashimzade obtained her PhD in Economics from Cornell University in 2003. Prior to her current position at Durham she has worked at the University of Exeter and the University of Reading. Her research interests are in applied microeconomic theory and in quantitative methods. Since 2012, she has been involved in research on the behavioral approach to tax evasion funded jointly by the ESRC, HMRC, and HMT. Among other projects, she works on developing behavioral models of tax compliance decisions in social networks and on building agent-based models that can be used to assess and compare tax enforcement policies in a complex environment. Nigar has published in leading international academic journals and contributed to a number of monographs, for some of which she has also been a coeditor. Her previous career was in theoretical physics.

Christine Harvey is a high-performance and analytic computing engineer at The MITRE Corporation in Washington, D.C. She specializes in data analysis and high-performance computing in simulations. In addition, her research interests include agent-based modeling and big data analysis, particularly in the field of Healthcare. She completed her masters in Computational Science from Stockton University in 2013 and is expected to finish her PhD in Computational Science and Informatics at George Mason University in 2018.

Erik Hemberg is a postdoctoral researcher in the ALFA group in CSAIL at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology. He performs research regarding scaleable machine learning. He is currently involved in research regarding tax evasion and physiological time series prediction. He received his PhD in Computer Science from the University College Dublin, Ireland. At ICAIL 2015 he co-authored the Peter Jackson Best Innovative Application paper.

Sascha Hokamp obtained his PhD in Public Economics from the Brandenburg University of Technology Cottbus, Germany, in 2013. He was awarded a stipend from the Deutsche Bundesbank via the “Verein für Socialpolitik” in 2011 and 2012. He is involved in organizing the biannual “Shadow Economy” conference series, founded at the Westfälische Wilhelms-Universität Münster, Germany, in 2009. He served in 2015 as a guest editor in Economics of Governance on “The Shadow Economy, Tax Evasion, and Governance.” Sascha is a member of the Research Unit for Sustainability and Global Change (FNU) and of the Center for Earth System Research and Sustainability (CEN), Universität Hamburg, Germany, and he is participating researcher at the Cluster of Excellence “Integrated Climate System Analysis and Prediction” (DFG EXC 177 CliSAP), on the project “Societal Use of Climate Information.” His research topics are integrated assessment modeling of climate change, agent-based modeling of environmental challenges, and climate policy as well as illicit activities (tax evasion and doping in elite-sports) and the shadow economy.

Matthew Koehler is the Applied Complexity Sciences Area Lead for the U.S. Treasury/Internal Revenue Service, U.S. Commerce, and Social Security Administration Program Division at The MITRE Corporation. He has concentrated on decision support using agent-based models and simulations, and the analysis and visualization of large datasets coming from complex systems. He received his AB in Anthropology from Kenyon College, his MPA from Indiana University's School of Public and Environmental Affairs, his JD from George Washington University's Law School, and his PhD in Computational Social Science from George Mason University's Krasnow Institute for Advanced Study, Department of Computational Social Science.

Toni Llacer holds a PhD in Sociology from the Universitat Autónoma de Barcelona (UAB), Spain. His research field is the interdisciplinary study of tax evasion. He obtained a bachelor's degree in Economics from Universitat Pompeu Fabra, a bachelor's degree in Philosophy from Universitat de Barcelona (Academic Excellence Award), and a master of science in Applied Social Research from UAB.

Tamás Máhr has a PhD in Computer Sciences from the Delft University of Technology, The Netherlands, and project manager of the simulation group of AITIA International Inc. He has been the senior software architect of the CRISIS project on agent-based modeling of the macro-financial system, responsible for the CRISIS Game Architecture, as well as for the CRISIS Integrated Simulator. His past research involved agent-based transportation planning and robustness of multiagent logistical planning, but he also published on auction algorithms, which are commonly used mechanisms in multiagent systems. Before the PhD track, Tamás got his MSc from the Budapest University of Technology and Economics, Hungary.

Shaun Michel is a computational sociologist in The MITRE Corporation's Department of Artificial Intelligence and Cognitive Science, specializing in simulation modeling, social behavior, and globalization. He began working on a PhD in Sociology at George Mason University in 2012 and he holds a master's degree in Sociology from East Tennessee State University.

Francisco J. Miguel Quesada is an associate professor at the Universitat Autónoma de Barcelona (UAB) teaching Methodology for the Social Sciences, Sociology of Consumption, and Applied Statistics for Marketing Analysis. He holds a PhD in Sociology from the UAB and a university specialist degree in Sociology of Consumption from the Universidad Complutense de Madrid. He has conducted research in sociology of consumption, social indicators, and school-to-work transitions. At present, he mainly works in the domain of computational sociology as GSADI group member. As Head of the “Laboratory for Socio-Historical Dynamics Simulation” (LSDS), he has been involved in several projects on the use of agent-based social simulation for modeling social networks dynamics and evolution of social behavior.

Luigi Mittone is a full professor of Economics at the University of Trento, Italy. At the University of Trento he is the Director of the Doctoral School of Social Sciences, Director of the Cognitive and Experimental Economics Laboratory, and coordinator of the International Master in Economics (MEC). He is also the coordinator of the research project in Experimental Economics and Nudging at the Bruno Kessler Research Center. He attended his master's degree in Economics at the Bocconi University of Milan (Italy), his master's degree in Social Sciences at the University of Birmingham (UK), and his PhD in Economics at the University of Bristol (UK). Luigi's main research interests and publications are in the field of Experimental and Behavioral Economics: fiscal evasion theory, consumer behavior, mental modeling of uncertain events, intertemporal choices, and cooperation among agents; Computational Economics: fiscal system dynamics with heterogeneous agents; and Public and Health Economics.

Gareth Myles is Professor of Economics and a Research Fellow at the Institute for Fiscal Studies. He is an associate editor of the Journal of Public Economic Theory and was managing editor of Fiscal Studies from 1998 to 2013. He obtained his BA from Warwick in 1983, his MSc from the London School of Economics in 1984, and his DPhil in 1987 from Oxford. His major research interest is in Public Economics and his publications include Public Economics (1995), Intermediate Public Economics (2006) and numerous papers in International Tax and Public Finance, the Journal of Public Economic Theory, and the Journal of Public Economics. Gareth is an academic adviser to HM Treasury and HM Revenue and Customs. He has also provided economic advice to international bodies including the European Commission and the OECD.

José A. Noguera is an associate professor (2002) in the Department of Sociology at the Universitat Autónoma de Barcelona, and Director of the Analytical Sociology and Institutional Design Group (GSADI). He holds a PhD in Sociology (1998) from the Universitat Autónoma de Barcelona and has been visiting researcher at the University of California, Berkeley, and at the London School of Economics and Political Science. He has been the principal investigator of several GSADI projects funded by the R&D Spanish National Plan since 2006. His empirical research is currently focused on tax compliance, social influence dynamics, prosocial motivations, and the feasibility of universal welfare policies such as basic income. José's publications also cover sociological theory, philosophy of social science, social policy, and normative social theory. His work in sociological theory aims to demonstrate the explanatory power of analytical sociology and the social mechanisms approach in sociology, with a strong focus on methodological individualism, the theory of rationality, social ontology, and the philosophy of social science. He is editor of PAPERS: Revista de Sociologia, an editorial board member of Basic Income Studies, and has served on the editorial board of Revista Española de Investigaciones Sociológicas. He is a member of the International Network of Analytical Sociologists (INAS) and serves on the Board of the Spanish Basic Income Network (RRB) and on the International Advisory Board of the Basic Income Earth Network (BIEN).

Una-May O'Reilly is the founder of the AnyScale Learning For All (ALFA) group at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology Computer Science and Artificial Intelligence Laboratory. She has expertise in big data, scalable machine learning, evolutionary algorithms, and frameworks for large-scale, automated knowledge mining, prediction, and analytics. She holds a PhD from Carleton University, Ottawa, Canada. She is an elected Fellow of the International Society for Genetic and Evolutionary Computation, holds the EvoStar Award for Outstanding Achievements in Evolutionary Computation, is Vice Chair of ACM SIGEVO, area editor for Data Analytics and Knowledge Discovery for Genetic Programming and Evolvable Machines (Kluwer), editor for Evolutionary Computation (MIT Press), and action editor for the Journal of Machine Learning Research. At ICAIL 2015 she co-authored the Peter Jackson Best Innovative Application paper.

Aloys L. Prinz is a full professor of Economics at Westfälische Wilhelms-Universität Münster, Institute of Public Economics. His work focuses primarily on public economics and taxation. He is the co-organizer of the biannual conferences on the shadow economy and tax evasion. In addition to publishing intensively in scientific journals, he has also coauthored books for general readers on social policy, public debt, monetary policy and taxation. Moreover, Aloys is also an active researcher in economic ethics.

Jacob Rosen is a chief technology officer at Deftr. His research focuses on the abstract representation of financial transactions and the use of artificial intelligence techniques to characterize human behaviors. Jacob received an MSc in Technology and Policy from the Massachusetts Institute of Technology.

Viola L. Saredi is a junior research fellow at the Cognitive and Experimental Economics Laboratory at the University of Trento, Italy. As a junior researcher, she has recently visited the Department of Applied Psychology at the University of Vienna. She holds a PhD degree in Behavioral and Experimental Economics from the University of Trento, and a master's degree in Economics from the Catholic University of the Sacred Heart, Milan, Italy. In keeping with the interdisciplinary nature of her field of interest, Viola's research mainly focuses on the application of innovative experimental methods to the study of psychological drivers and biases affecting consumers' behavior and clandestine activities (such as tax evasion, bribing, and agency dilemmas).

Götz Seibold is a professor at the Brandenburg University of Technology Cottbus-Senftenberg, Germany, where he holds the Chair for Computational Physics. He received his PhD in Physics from the University of Stuttgart, Germany, in 1995. He works in the general area of solid-state theory with a focus on superconductivity and strongly correlated electron systems. He is internationally recognized for his work on electronic inhomogeneities in high-temperature superconductors and the time-dependent Gutzwiller approximation. Besides, Götz is interested in the field of econophysics where he works on agent-based models related to tax evasion and the shadow economy.

David Slater is a lead operations research analyst within The MITRE Corporation's Operations Research Department. He has spent the last 5 years at MITRE applying Applied Mathematics to some of the United States' most critical and challenging Systems Engineering problems. His research interests include complex systems analysis, network science, and complexity science. He received his BS from Michigan Technological University in 2005 and an MS and PhD in Applied Mathematics from Cornell University in 2009 and 2011, respectively.

Eduardo Tapia Tejada holds a PhD in Sociology from the Universitat Autònoma de Barcelona and is a postdoctoral researcher at The Institute for Analytical Sociology (Sweden). He is a graduate in Sociology from the Universidad Federico Villarreal of Peru and he holds a master's degree in Sociological Research from the Universitat Autònoma de Barcelona. He also holds a degree in Design and Evaluation of Social Projects from the Pontificia Universidad Católica del Perú. He was a postdoctoral research fellow at GSADI (2013–2014) in the project Social and environmental transitions: SIMULPAST. His research interests involve two main areas: diffusion dynamics, particularly how certain beliefs spread through social groups, and beliefs evaluation mechanisms. In order to tackle these issues, Eduardo uses tools such as network analysis, statistical modeling, and agent-based simulation. The main theoretical question that motivates his research is to analyze how actions at the micro level generate patterns at the macro level.

István János Tóth is senior research fellow at the Institute of Economics of the Hungarian Academy of Sciences in Budapest and managing director of Corruption Research Center Budapest (CRCB). He graduated at the Corvinus (former Karl Marx) University of Budapest in 1984, and studied at École des Hautes Études en Sciences Sociales (EHESS) in Paris in 1990–1991. He holds a master's degree in Economics and Sociology. István János obtained his PhD at the Hungarian Academy of Sciences in 1998. His main research interests are the problems of corruption and economic institutions, hidden economy, and tax evasion.

Geoffrey Warner is a lead information systems engineer at The MITRE Corporation. He received his PhD in theoretical condensed matter physics from the University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign. His research involves the application of mathematical and computational modeling to a diverse range of problems, from tax evasion to the physics of remote sensing devices.

Sanith Wijesinghe is an Innovation Area Leader at The MITRE Corporation where he oversees research and development efforts to support multiple federal government agencies. His most recent work on detecting tax evasion schemes was awarded the Peter Jackson award by the International Association of Artificial Intelligence and Law and was featured in the New York Times. Prior to joining MITRE, he was Vice President for Project Deployment at MillenniumIT, a software development firm serving the capital markets industry. He received his master's and PhD degrees in Aeronautics/Astronautics from the Massachusetts Institute of Technology.